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Thursday, September 09, 2010

Risk Characterization Choices And Risk Exaggeration:

 

            The characterization of the risk associated with a specified dose of a chemical is influenced by several factors.  Regulatory agencies choose values for these factors designed to result in upper-bound characterizations of human health risks as opposed to true values of risk.  These choices are usually driven by regulatory policy and not science.  One of the major choices made by regulatory agencies is to assume that high-dose behavior in the most sensitive gender, strain, and species of experimental animals is predictive of low-dose behavior in humans.

 

            Some choices frequently made by regulatory agencies to increase the cancer slope factor (CSF) or cancer potency are as follows:

 

            i)          choosing the data set (study, species, gender, tissue site, and severity of response) 
that results in the largest CSF,

            ii)         choosing the method of fitting the relationship between the observed response
frequencies and the corresponding dose levels (dose-response modeling) that results
in the largest CSF,

            iii)        choosing the method of extrapolating from high experimental doses to lower doses (high-to-low-dose extrapolation) that results in the largest CSF,

            iv)        choosing the method of extrapolating from animals to humans (interspecies extrapolation) that results in the largest CSF, and

            v)         choosing the measure of risk (extra risk instead of added risk) that results in the largest CSF.

 

3. Human Health Risk Assessment
3.1     
Quantitative Risk Assessment and Statistical Analysis
3.2      Importance of Dose and Dose-Response Relationships
3.3      Misuse of Regulatory Upper-Bound Risk Characterizations
3.4      Risk Characterization Choices and Risk Exaggeration
3.5      A Better Approach to Cancer Risk Characterization
3.6      Overview of Background, Motivation, and Statistical Methods for Margin-of-Exposure Characterizations of Cancer Risks
           3.6.1    Importance of Dose
           3.6.2    Dose-Response Modeling
           3.6.3    Dose-Response Models
           3.6.4    Maximum Likelihood Estimation
           3.6.5    
Multistage Model
           3.6.6    Example of Fitted Multistage Model
           3.6.7    Potency
           3.6.8    Linearized Multistage Model
           3.6.9    Overstatement of Risks by the Linearized Multistage Model
           3.6.10  Adverse Impacts of the Variability in the Magnitude of the Bias in the Linearized Multistage Model's Overstatement of Risks
           3.6.11  Non-Responsiveness of the Linearized Multistage Model to Data
           3.6.12  Ranking Relative Risks
           3.6.13  Added Risk versus Extra Risk
           3.6.14  Need for a Better Dose-Response Characterization
           3.6.15  Better Dose-Response Characterization
           3.6.16  Benchmark Doses
           3.6.17  Responsiveness of Benchmark Doses Data Versus the Relative Non-Responsiveness of the Regulatory Upper-Bound Potency Q1* based on the Linearized Multistage Model
           3.6.18  Recommended Dose-Response Characterization
           3.6.19  Margin-of-Exposure Characterizations
           3.6.20  Conclusion
           3.6.21  Figures 1 to 16
3.7      Innovative Risk Assessment
3.8      Components of High-to-Low-Dose Extrapolation and Dose-Response Modeling
3.9      Probabilistic Exposure Assessment
3.10    Aggregate Risk Assessment
3.11    Cumulative Risk Assessment
3.12    Example Activities