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Thursday, September 09, 2010
NONRESPONSIVENESS OF THE LINEARIZED MULTISTAGE MODEL TO DATA

 

As exemplified in Figure 7, the linearized multistage models upper-bound q1* potency is very nonresponsive to the information on the shape of the dose-response relationship in observed data.  The q1* value is primarily determined by the highest dose level in the data and is not primarily determined by the observed dose-response pattern in the data.  However, the highest dose in experimental data is usually the maximum tolerated dose which is determined by some simple gross measure of toxicity and not cancer or the specified adverse health effect of regulatory concern.  Thus, the nonresponsiveness of the linearized multistage model to the observed dose-response data on cancer means that the q1* value used to regulate cancer is not determined by the corresponding cancer dose-response data but rather is primarily determined by the more general measure of toxicity used to determine the maximum tolerated dose.  In Figure 7, five hypothetical experimental outcomes have very different dose-response relationships, yet the largest of the five corresponding linearized multistage model potency measures differs from the smallest potency measure by less than one order of magnitude (10 fold).

 

>> Figure 7

3. Human Health Risk Assessment
3.1     
Quantitative Risk Assessment and Statistical Analysis
3.2      Importance of Dose and Dose-Response Relationships
3.3      Misuse of Regulatory Upper-Bound Risk Characterizations
3.4      Risk Characterization Choices and Risk Exaggeration
3.5      A Better Approach to Cancer Risk Characterization
3.6      Overview of Background, Motivation, and Statistical Methods for Margin-of-Exposure Characterizations of Cancer Risks
           3.6.1    Importance of Dose
           3.6.2    Dose-Response Modeling
           3.6.3    Dose-Response Models
           3.6.4    Maximum Likelihood Estimation
           3.6.5    
Multistage Model
           3.6.6    Example of Fitted Multistage Model
           3.6.7    Potency
           3.6.8    Linearized Multistage Model
           3.6.9    Overstatement of Risks by the Linearized Multistage Model
           3.6.10  Adverse Impacts of the Variability in the Magnitude of the Bias in the Linearized Multistage Model's Overstatement of Risks
           3.6.11  Non-Responsiveness of the Linearized Multistage Model to Data
           3.6.12  Ranking Relative Risks
           3.6.13  Added Risk versus Extra Risk
           3.6.14  Need for a Better Dose-Response Characterization
           3.6.15  Better Dose-Response Characterization
           3.6.16  Benchmark Doses
           3.6.17  Responsiveness of Benchmark Doses Data Versus the Relative Non-Responsiveness of the Regulatory Upper-Bound Potency Q1* based on the Linearized Multistage Model
           3.6.18  Recommended Dose-Response Characterization
           3.6.19  Margin-of-Exposure Characterizations
           3.6.20  Conclusion
           3.6.21  Figures 1 to 16
3.7      Innovative Risk Assessment
3.8      Components of High-to-Low-Dose Extrapolation and Dose-Response Modeling
3.9      Probabilistic Exposure Assessment
3.10    Aggregate Risk Assessment
3.11    Cumulative Risk Assessment
3.12    Example Activities