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Thursday, September 09, 2010

CONCLUSION

 

Benchmark doses based on the ED10 and margin-of-exposure characterizations together provide a more realistic treatment of data than the regulatory potency measure (q1*) based on the linearized multistage model.

 

The recommendation to use the ED10 to characterize the dose-response relationship and margins of exposure to characterize the risk is consistent with classical assessments of toxicity and safety.

 

Using the ED10 to characterize the dose-response relationship is consistent with the use of classical measures of toxicity like the no-observed-adverse-effect-level (NOAEL) to reflect dose levels that are likely to be without appreciable risks of deleterious effects.  These classical measures of toxicity are based on the idea of using the observed data to determine a dose level at which there is no detectable increase in the occurrence of adverse health effects (no increase compared to the probability of response at dose zero).

 

Using margins of exposure to characterize the degree of safety is consistent with use of allowable daily intake by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, reference dose and reference concentration by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, minimum risk level by the U.S. ATSDR, and tolerable intake by the World Health Organization -- where, for example, the U.S. EPA describes the reference dose as ...an estimate (with uncertainty spanning perhaps an order of magnitude) of a daily exposure to the human population (including sensitive subgroups) that is likely to be without appreciable risk of deleterious effects during a lifetime.

3. Human Health Risk Assessment
3.1     
Quantitative Risk Assessment and Statistical Analysis
3.2      Importance of Dose and Dose-Response Relationships
3.3      Misuse of Regulatory Upper-Bound Risk Characterizations
3.4      Risk Characterization Choices and Risk Exaggeration
3.5      A Better Approach to Cancer Risk Characterization
3.6      Overview of Background, Motivation, and Statistical Methods for Margin-of-Exposure Characterizations of Cancer Risks
           3.6.1    Importance of Dose
           3.6.2    Dose-Response Modeling
           3.6.3    Dose-Response Models
           3.6.4    Maximum Likelihood Estimation
           3.6.5    
Multistage Model
           3.6.6    Example of Fitted Multistage Model
           3.6.7    Potency
           3.6.8    Linearized Multistage Model
           3.6.9    Overstatement of Risks by the Linearized Multistage Model
           3.6.10  Adverse Impacts of the Variability in the Magnitude of the Bias in the Linearized Multistage Model's Overstatement of Risks
           3.6.11  Non-Responsiveness of the Linearized Multistage Model to Data
           3.6.12  Ranking Relative Risks
           3.6.13  Added Risk versus Extra Risk
           3.6.14  Need for a Better Dose-Response Characterization
           3.6.15  Better Dose-Response Characterization
           3.6.16  Benchmark Doses
           3.6.17  Responsiveness of Benchmark Doses Data Versus the Relative Non-Responsiveness of the Regulatory Upper-Bound Potency Q1* based on the Linearized Multistage Model
           3.6.18  Recommended Dose-Response Characterization
           3.6.19  Margin-of-Exposure Characterizations
           3.6.20  Conclusion
           3.6.21  Figures 1 to 16
3.7      Innovative Risk Assessment
3.8      Components of High-to-Low-Dose Extrapolation and Dose-Response Modeling
3.9      Probabilistic Exposure Assessment
3.10    Aggregate Risk Assessment
3.11    Cumulative Risk Assessment
3.12    Example Activities